The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on 28 May 2026, forecast the 2026 Southwest Monsoon to be 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA). This indicates a 10% rainfall deficit for the season. The forecast raises concerns over agricultural output and rural incomes across the country.
IMD Director General Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra stated, “Current atmospheric models show a 70% probability of El Niño conditions developing by July 2026.” He added, “This substantially raises the risk of a drier monsoon across central and western India, especially impacting rain-fed agriculture.”
ℹ️ El Niño Explained
El Niño is a climate pattern describing unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It occurs every two to seven years. In India, El Niño conditions are often associated with suppressed monsoon rainfall. This can lead to drought conditions and reduced agricultural yields, impacting food security.
The projected deficit mirrors the 2015 monsoon season, which recorded a 14% rainfall shortfall. That year, 11 states declared drought, affecting over 330 million people. The agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP) saw a 0.5% contraction, translating to an estimated ₹80,000 crore loss in farm income.
Recent El Niño Monsoon Deficits
| Year | Monsoon Rainfall (as % of LPA) | Rainfall Deficit | El Niño Presence |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 78% | 22% | Strong |
| 2015 | 86% | 14% | Strong |
| 2026 (Forecast) | 90% | 10% | Moderate (70% probability) |
Key kharif crops like rice, pulses, and oilseeds are especially vulnerable to reduced rainfall. Agricultural economists predict an 8-12% reduction in overall kharif crop yields if the deficit persists. This could push food inflation by 1.5-2 percentage points, impacting household budgets. The Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry (FICCI) estimates a 0.3% drag on overall GDP if agricultural output declines by 5% due to a monsoon deficit.
States including Maharashtra, Karnataka, Rajasthan, and Gujarat face the highest risk of water stress. These regions rely heavily on monsoon rains for irrigation. For instance, Maharashtra’s Marathwada region, which saw a 25% deficit in 2015, is already preparing for potential water scarcity measures. Karnataka’s northern districts, including Kalaburagi and Vijayapura, are also identified as high-risk zones. In Rajasthan, the Department of Water Resources has identified 15 districts, including Barmer and Jaisalmer, as highly susceptible to drought, with groundwater levels already 15-20% below the 5-year average.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare has activated its contingency plans for 600 districts. These plans include promoting drought-resistant crop varieties and efficient water management techniques. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader and Union Minister of State for Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare, Shobha Karandlaje, confirmed the allocation of ₹5,000 crore under the National Food Security Mission (NFSM), a centrally sponsored scheme launched in 2007. This funding, benefiting an estimated 13 million farmers annually with an average support of ₹3,800 per beneficiary, supports climate-resilient practices and provides immediate relief to affected states.
We are closely monitoring the situation and have contingency measures ready. Our priority is to protect farmer livelihoods and ensure food security for the nation. We are working with state governments to implement these plans effectively.
Shobha Karandlaje, BJP leader and Union Minister of State for Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare · Press Conference, New Delhi · 29 May 2026
The Ministry of Jal Shakti has also initiated a review of reservoir levels in 150 major reservoirs. Current levels stand at 35% of their total capacity, 5% lower than the 10-year average for this period. This indicates pre-monsoon water stress, especially in southern and western India. In Tamil Nadu, the Mettur Dam, a key irrigation source, reports levels at 28% capacity, down from 40% last year, prompting concerns for delta region farmers.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet on 6 June 2026. The MPC will closely monitor potential food price inflation arising from a weaker monsoon. A prolonged dry spell could influence future interest rate decisions, potentially delaying any rate cuts. This is the second time since 2015 that an El Niño threat has coincided with pre-monsoon forecasts, forcing the central bank to factor in agricultural output risks.
IMD will issue its updated monsoon forecast in mid-June 2026. This second forecast will provide more clarity on the spatial distribution and intensity of rainfall. State governments are preparing district-level advisories based on the initial IMD projections and will implement water conservation measures, including rationing in urban areas if necessary.
